Why College Hoops Stars Are Saying ‘Thanks, But No Thanks’ (For Now) to the NBA Draft
Remember when the script was simple? You were a big-time college basketball player, maybe played a year or two (or hey, just one, thanks to the rule change), and if you had even a whiff of an NBA future, you packed your bags, declared for the draft, and hoped for the best. Strike while the iron’s hot, right? The upside of an NBA contract, even a rookie minimum or a second-round flyer, almost always dwarfed whatever scraps amateurism allowed you in college.
Well, guess what? The script got a serious rewrite. The ink is barely dry on this new version, but the plot twist is undeniable: staying in college is suddenly a wildly appealing, even financially lucrative, alternative for many talented players who, just a few years ago, would have been sprinting toward draft night.
The Old Path: High Risk, Uncertain Reward
For decades, the decision point for college players was fraught with risk. You put your name in the draft, and if you weren’t a projected first-rounder, your future was murky. Second-round contracts weren’t guaranteed. You could end up playing in the G League for modest money, potentially losing your college eligibility without securing your financial future. It was a high-stakes gamble where the potential NBA payday was the only real carrot.
The “one-and-done” era, while fueling elite college talent for a single season, often pushed players into the draft before they were truly ready, simply because delaying meant risking injury or a dip in draft stock. The system, for many, was about capitalizing on peak hype, even if it meant entering the professional world underprepared or without a guaranteed safety net beyond that first rookie contract year.
Enter NIL: The Game Changer
Then came Name, Image, and Likeness. Overnight, or at least it felt that way, college athletes were allowed to monetize their own brand. No longer were they strictly “amateurs” living on stipends and meal plans while starring in nationally televised games. Suddenly, their fame, their social media following, their local hero status – it all had a dollar value. And that value, for the top players, turned out to be astronomical.
This wasn’t just pocket money. We’re talking serious, life-altering cash. Collectives sprung up, brands lined up, and star players started signing deals that rivaled, and in some cases, exceeded, the starting salaries of many professional athletes.
The Financial Fork in the Road
Let’s talk numbers, because that’s where the rubber meets the road. Sources indicate that high-level college players can now command NIL deals worth anywhere from $2 million to $3 million per year. According to one report, a player like JT Toppin at Texas Tech is projected to earn approximately $4 million in NIL compensation. Compare that to the alternative.
Look at NBA rookie contracts, especially outside the lottery. The 30th pick in the NBA draft earns slightly less than $2.3 million on their first contract, according to one analysis. Another source points out that a two-way contract for the 2025-26 season is worth about $635,000, but crucially, only around $318,000 of that total is guaranteed. For a player projected outside the first round, potentially looking at a non-guaranteed second-round deal or a two-way contract, the financial calculation is suddenly flipped on its head.
Why jump to the G League for potentially less than half a million guaranteed when you can stay in college, be the unquestioned star, play in March Madness, and make millions from endorsements and deals? It’s not just hypothetical; players like Drew Timme at Gonzaga and Armando Bacot at UNC reportedly earned figures from NIL that were comparable to or exceeded potential two-way or late second-round NBA deals. For them, the guaranteed income and platform provided by college, augmented by NIL, was simply a better financial and lifestyle choice at that moment.
Staying Put for Development and Leverage
It’s not *just* about the money today, though let’s be real, the money is a huge part of it. But staying in college with substantial NIL earnings also buys a player something invaluable: time. Time to develop their game, refine weaknesses, get stronger, mature, and increase their future earning potential in the *next* draft.
Instead of being rushed into a professional environment where development minutes might be scarce unless you’re a high pick, staying in college allows players to remain central figures on their teams, playing significant minutes against high-level competition, all while continuing to work with coaching staffs they know and trust. They can improve their shooting percentage, their defensive awareness, their leadership skills – things that translate directly to a higher draft slot down the line. Essentially, they can get paid millions to work on their game and raise their draft stock, mitigating the rush and risk that defined the pre-NIL era for non-lottery prospects.
The Ripple Effect on the NBA Draft and Beyond
This shift has fascinating implications for the NBA Draft, particularly the second round. Could we see the second round become increasingly populated by older, more physically mature, and polished players who spent three or four years honing their skills in college while building their brand and bank account? It makes sense. A 22-year-old who has averaged 18 points a game and made millions in NIL is less likely to be desperate for a minimum salary slot than a 19-year-old who didn’t quite live up to their one-and-done hype and has no alternative income stream.
It also changes the talent pool. The source material points out that lucrative NIL deals make American college basketball a more attractive option than playing professionally overseas for some international prospects. Why skip college entirely when you can get high-level competition, exposure, and significant income in the US before ever entering the draft? This inflow of international talent, coupled with domestic players staying longer, could elevate the overall level of play and maturity in college basketball.
What’s Next? The House Settlement and Revenue Sharing
And if you thought NIL was the final form, think again. The pending House settlement, a massive $2.8 billion agreement, is poised to introduce revenue sharing directly from universities to athletes. While there will likely be caps (projected around $20.5 million per school starting in 2025-26), this adds another layer of potential financial incentive for players to remain in college. It moves college athletics even further away from the traditional amateur model and positions universities as competitors for talent not just against other colleges, but increasingly against professional leagues themselves, at least for a certain tier of player.
The Big Picture: A New Era for Player Power
So, what does it all mean? It means the power dynamic has shifted dramatically. Players, for the first time, have a viable, financially secure alternative to declaring for the NBA Draft before they’re ready or when their stock isn’t optimally high. The old pressure to “go now or miss your shot” has been significantly lessened for many. They can stay, earn substantial money, develop their skills, build their brand, and enter the draft on their own terms, potentially at an older age but with a more polished game and a higher ceiling.
College basketball isn’t just a pit stop on the way to the pros anymore; for an increasing number of players, it’s a destination where they can be financially compensated stars while still pursuing their ultimate dream. It makes the college game better, keeps familiar faces around longer, and forces NBA teams to think differently about draft evaluation. The era of NIL has fundamentally reshaped the pipeline, and we’re just starting to see the full impact of players prioritizing financial security and long-term development alongside their draft aspirations. It’s a fascinating evolution, and frankly, about time the athletes got a bigger slice of the pie they help create.